ASEAN's Collective Response to the SCS Crisis and Thailand's Potential Canal Project
The South China Sea crisis and Thailand's proposed Kra Canal project present ASEAN with a complex set of challenges and opportunities. ASEAN's ability to navigate these troubled waters will depend on its continued commitment to unity
By Dr Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani Sabri is a former director at the Institute of Tun Dr Mahathir Thoughts.
The South China Sea (SCS), a vast expanse of maritime territory, has become a flashpoint of geopolitical tensions and territorial disputes, with China asserting sweeping claims over the region's waters and resources. This crisis poses a significant challenge to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), an intergovernmental organization dedicated to regional cooperation and stability. Amidst these escalating tensions, Thailand's proposed Kra Canal project, aimed at cutting across the Malay Peninsula and connecting the Andaman Sea with the Gulf of Thailand, has further complicated the regional dynamics.
ASEAN's Collective Response to the SCS Crisis: A History of Assertiveness
In the face of China's assertive actions, ASEAN has consistently demonstrated its resolve to maintain regional stability and uphold international law. The organization's Declaration of Conduct on the South China Sea (DOC), adopted in 2002, stands as a testament to its commitment to peaceful resolution of disputes. While the DOC has been criticized for its non-binding nature, it has nonetheless served as a cornerstone of ASEAN's engagement with China on the SCS issue.
ASEAN has also taken proactive steps to address specific maritime security concerns in the SCS. In 2012, the organization established the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Maritime Security Working Group, which has facilitated cooperation on issues such as piracy, search and rescue, and marine environmental protection. Additionally, ASEAN has developed a series of confidence-building measures aimed at reducing tensions and promoting mutual understanding among SCS claimant states.
The Philippines' landmark 2016 arbitration victory against China under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) further underscored ASEAN's commitment to international law. While China has refused to accept the ruling, it nevertheless solidified the UNCLOS as the legal framework governing maritime disputes in the SCS.
Thailand's Kra Canal Project: A Double-Edged Sword
Thailand's proposed Kra Canal project, if implemented, would have profound implications for the SCS crisis and ASEAN's economic landscape. The canal would provide an alternative shipping route between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, potentially reducing reliance on the Malacca Strait, a narrow and congested waterway that is currently the primary conduit for maritime trade between the two regions.
On the one hand, the Kra Canal could potentially boost regional trade and economic growth by reducing shipping costs and transit times. It could also contribute to the diversification of maritime trade routes, enhancing regional connectivity and resilience. Moreover, the canal could potentially serve as a catalyst for development in southern Thailand, creating new employment opportunities and economic growth.
Kazi Mahmood
However, the Kra Canal project also raises concerns about its potential negative impacts. The construction of the canal would require significant financial investment, estimated to range from $28 to $34 billion. Additionally, the canal's construction would have substantial environmental consequences, potentially disrupting marine ecosystems and coastal habitats.https://www.worldfuturetv.com/china-usa-security-risk-creator/
Furthermore, the canal could inadvertently exacerbate tensions in the SCS by providing an alternative route for Chinese military vessels. The Malacca Strait, while narrow, is also heavily fortified, making it a less attractive option for Chinese military manoeuvres. The Kra Canal, on the other hand, could provide a more direct passage for Chinese naval forces, potentially increasing their presence in the SCS.
Malaysia: Uniting ASEAN vs. China: A Beacon of Diplomacy
Malaysia has emerged as a leading voice in ASEAN, playing a pivotal role in fostering unity and promoting a collective response to the SCS crisis. The country has consistently advocated for ASEAN's centrality in addressing the crisis, emphasizing the importance of upholding international law and the peaceful resolution of disputes.
Malaysia's diplomatic efforts have been instrumental in maintaining ASEAN's cohesion amidst growing tensions in the SCS. The country has actively participated in ASEAN-led initiatives, such as the development of a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, aimed at establishing rules and norms governing behaviour in the region.
Malaysia has also been a staunch supporter of multilateralism, recognizing that regional security and stability are intertwined with global cooperation. The country has actively participated in regional and international forums, such as the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the G20, to promote dialogue and cooperation on issues of common interest, including the SCS crisis.
Conclusion: A Collective Challenge, A Shared Responsibility
The South China Sea crisis and Thailand's proposed Kra Canal project present ASEAN with a complex set of challenges and opportunities. ASEAN's ability to navigate these troubled waters will depend on its continued commitment to unity, adherence to international law, and the pursuit of mutually beneficial economic cooperation.
ASEAN's Path Forward: A Roadmap for Resilience
To effectively address the SCS crisis and harness the potential benefits of the Kra Canal project, ASEAN must adopt a comprehensive and multifaceted approach. This approach should encompass the following key elements:
- Reaffirming ASEAN Centrality:
ASEAN must continue to assert its centrality in addressing the SCS crisis, emphasizing its role as a neutral facilitator and consensus-builder. The organization should maintain open channels of communication with all stakeholders, including China, to promote dialogue and cooperation.
- Upholding International Law:
ASEAN must be unwavering in its commitment to international law, particularly UNCLOS, as the legal framework governing maritime disputes in the SCS. The organization should continue to advocate for the peaceful resolution of disputes based on international law.
- Strengthening ASEAN's Maritime Security Architecture:
ASEAN should continue to strengthen its maritime security architecture to enhance its ability to monitor and respond to maritime security incidents in the SCS. The organization should also deepen cooperation with its external partners to address common maritime security challenges.
- Ensuring Environmental Sustainability:
The Kra Canal project, if implemented, must be undertaken with utmost regard for environmental sustainability. ASEAN should conduct comprehensive environmental impact assessments and implement rigorous environmental protection measures to minimize the project's ecological footprint.
- Promoting Economic Cooperation:
ASEAN should leverage the Kra Canal project as an opportunity to promote regional economic cooperation and integration. The organization should develop a comprehensive strategy to maximize the project's economic benefits while ensuring equitable distribution of those benefits among ASEAN member states.
- Fostering Inclusive Dialogue:
ASEAN should foster inclusive dialogue and cooperation among all stakeholders, including coastal states, non-claimant states, and major powers, to address the SCS crisis and promote regional stability.
- Harnessing Technology:
ASEAN should harness technological advancements to enhance its maritime domain awareness and facilitate cooperation on issues such as maritime search and rescue, disaster management, and marine environmental protection.
- Promoting Public Awareness:
ASEAN should raise public awareness about the SCS crisis and the importance of regional cooperation in addressing it. The organization should engage with civil society, academia, and the media to promote informed public discourse on the issue.
By adopting these measures, ASEAN can effectively navigate the challenges posed by the SCS crisis and harness the potential benefits of the Kra Canal project, ensuring a brighter and more prosperous future for the region.
ASEAN's unity, resilience, and commitment to international law will be crucial in shaping the future of the South China Sea and the broader Indo-Pacific region. By working together, ASEAN member states can transform the SCS from a source of tension into a sea of peace, cooperation, and shared prosperity.