Exports maintained double-digit growth with moderation in Feb

External trade moderated in Feb-22, says analyst firms, adding that exports maintained double-digit growth despite moderation in February. Malaysia’s total trade rose by +17.5%yoy to RM184.8b in Feb-22.

Total trade fell below RM200b for the first time in 5 months as exports and imports both decreased from the previous month. On a year-on-year basis, exports growth moderated to +16.8%yoy (Jan-22: +23.9%yoy) but maintained double-digit growth since Aug-21.

The moderation was in line with our expectations looking at the trend in regional countries’ trade performance.

Moderating exports

Moderation in exports performance across major sectors. The breakdown by sector shows all major sectors recorded moderate exports growth in Feb-22, despite sustaining robust double-digit expansion. Agriculture exports slowed to +38.7%yoy (Jan-22: 75.6%yoy).

Meanwhile manufacturing exports grew at +14.2%yoy, slower than +19.3%yoy growth in the previous month.

“Revise growth forecast higher for exports and imports to +7.8% and +9.6%, respectively. Taking into account the recent trade performance, we revise our growth projection higher for exports and imports to +7.8% and +9.6%, respectively.

“We opine that the rate of growth will moderate this year due to the diminishing low-base effect. Overall, we expect growing foreign demand for E&E and commodities, especially palm oil and oil & gas, will support expansion in exports in the coming months.

“But, the outlook for global growth and international trade could be constrained by prolonged disruption in the global supply chain and rising prices,” says MIDF.