Mauritius: 2014 survey predicted MMM-Labour debacle

A survey carried out in June 2014, 6 months before the elections in on 10 December gave clear indications where the tendency was prior to the elections.

The survey, done by the same agency that carried out the May 1st survey published by, showed the following:

(Section 1)

Note the wrong spelling of Sir Anerood Jugnauth’s name. 

It was then clear that SAJ, who had resigned from his cosy post of President of the Republic in a bid to join the Movement Militant Mauricien (MMM) in an alliance, was the clear favourite among the Mauritians.

It also showed that Navin Ramgoolam was still carrying the favours of more than a quarter of those polled in the survey, while Berenger languished behind.

It was the result of the squabble between SAJ and Berenger on several issues that prevented an MMM-Movement Socialist Mauricien (MSM) alliance, which was an alliance expected by many.

This was the first section of the survey.

A second section showed the following tendencies:

(Section 2)
Parties preference with a coalition/Allies

Labour Party/MMMDr N. Ramgolam as PM
Paul R.Berenger as PM
Labour Party/MSM

Dr N. Ramgolam as PM
Sir A. Jugarnauth as PM
MSM/MMMPaul R.Berenger as PM
Sir A. Jugarnauth as PM


This section clearly shows that an MMM/MSM alliance was highly favoured by the population, but when Berenger decided to shift gun to the Labour Party, later on, the result became as disastrous as the prediction from the Indian agency’s survey.

It also showed that SAJ was still a favourite if he was to lead an MSM/Labour alliance, scoring more than Ramgoolam as the leader but they would have lost the elections to an alliance lead by the MMM, though no indications are given in these data’s collected by recently.

A Labour Party/MMM alliance was given only between 15% to 19% chances of winning the elections.

The results in December were devastating for the Labour/MMM alliance.

Alliance Lepep (MSM–PMSD–ML) garnered 49.83% of votes, while the Labour/MMM won only 38.51 votes, in one of the worst defeat for the party of Berenger.

Which shows the survey done by the said agency can be trusted.

A three-party fight in 2014

In a third section, the agency in question deducted that the MMM, if it had gone in the polls with Berenger as PM, it would have garnered only 6% of votes.

This reflected the anti-Berenger sentiment that invaded Mauritius after the failed deal with the MSM.

It also showed that the MSM with SAJ as PM would garner 70% votes.

It did not get that 70% votes, surely, but it did win by a whopping margin and that is indicative the survey was correct on the tendencies in Mauritius in 2014.

Finally, the survey showed that Ramgoolam would have garnered 24% of the vote if the Labour Party had gone to polls with him as PM.

These three indications were taken into consideration with the possibility that all three parties would have fought it out individually in the elections, that is a three-party fight between the MMM, MSM and Labour.

Share This:

Send a Comment

Your email address will not be published.