Sodomy 2: A scenario with a domino effect

A PR without Anwar is a headless chicken that will dance around, colliding against walls and stones, before it collapses on the ground and this is what is now expected of the opposition coalition.

The Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim jail sentence which was upheld by the supreme court, the last judicial avenue for the embattled opposition leader, could be part of a scenario with a domino effect.
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In this scenario, we will examine the effect of this judgement on former Prime Minister Tun Mahathir Mohammad’s vindication of his belief that Anwar is guilty from the day one of the sodomy saga, the impact this will have on the rule of Prime Minister Najib Razak and on the future of the Pakatan Rakyat (PR).
What if, in this scenario on the current political situation in Malaysia, Tun Mahathir was to be the winner in a long drawn war against his former successor designate.
What impact would the sentencing of Anwar have on the current internal strife within the ruling Umno party, a political battle that is pitting Mahathir against Najib?
The effect of this internal war, waged between factions supporting Mahathir Najib could have even wider national ramifications. It could become the deal breaker of the century, that would give birth to a new Malaysia.
The result of the weeks long deliberation of the five high court judges were not as unexpected as it looks, if the events prior to the Feb 10 deadline were to be taken into consideration.
And this is based on the scenario that the Sodomy 2 case has its political strings, as was that of the first sodomy charges against Anwar Ibrahim.
The court has dismissed that the defense argument that the sodomy 2 was a political conspiracy, it has also stated that the DNA analysis was genuine and the plaintiff Saiful Bukhary was a credible witness.
However, there are a few major flaws in the entire deliberation, pointed out by the prosecution and by the Anwar Ibrahim defense team.
The prosecution is unhappy that Anwar was not handed a longer jail term.
The prosecution’s main attorney Shafee Abdullah made it clear that the he does not agree with the five year jail sentencing based on the principle that under Malaysia’s law, the sentencing should be longer.
Foreign and local commentators are already up in arms over the issues that remains dark spots in the court’s ruling.
Is it a political conspiracy against Anwar? The fact that he was not jailed for more than five years, speaks for itself.
The judges were trying to go for leniency? If that was the case, would they be lenient to an old man, without a name, who has no bearing on anything and accused of sodomy?
The domino effect has actually started with the final result of the Sabah IC inquiry.
The Royal Commission of Inquiry on illegal immigrants in Sabah, to deliberate on accusations that Malaysia illegally granted citizen status to foreigners in the state of Sabah, in the former Borneo state, deliberated that political parties – hence political figures – were not involved in the granting of citizenship to illegals.
Tun Mahathir was a main target during the inquiry. The result of the inquiry cleared him from possible charges.
Anwar Ibrahim was a main contender who maintained that Mahathir was lying about the ‘Project IC’, lashing out at Mahathir with a quote that would have deeply hurt the elderly statesman.
Anwar said It is impossible for Mahathir to claim ignorance regarding the indiscriminate issuance of identity cards to illegal immigrants, unless he was irresponsible or incompetent, opposition leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim told the Royal Commission of Inquiry on illegal immigrants in Sabah.
In October last year, the Federal court heard the appeal from Anwar’s lawyers and reserved its judgement for two months. Unusual as it is, it was not in favour of Anwar. But prior to the judgement day, the RCI on Project IC cleared the local politicians thought to be involved in the project.
The sodomy appeal won by the prosecution, if one sees the timeline of events, clashed with Anwar’s attempt to be the candidate in Kajang and to become the next Menteri Besar of Selangor. Was it a ploy by Anwar to give a political flavour to the sodomy case?
Nevertheless, with Anwar’s fresh conviction, the Umno now has the terrain for itself, in which it can play havoc against the Pakatan Rakyat.
A PR without Anwar is a headless chicken that will dance around, colliding against walls and stones, before it collapses on the ground and this is what is now expected of the opposition coalition.
The scenario is not good for PR, not good for the Party Keadilaan Rakyat and definitely not good Anwar.
With Mahathir triumphant, and the Altantuya Shaariibuu now thrown wide open to potential revelations from the two accused police commandos, Sirul Azhar Umar and Azilah Hadri, the political battle is now between the former PM and the seating PM.
Anwar behind bars, it is also indicative that the case against former Minister of Finance Tun Daim Zainuddin could be in jeopardy.
The Malaysian anti-graft agency may still take Anwar’s offer to assist in investigations into Daim’s banking business abroad, years after the former finance minister was cleared of any wrongdoing, but who will believe a twice convicted man?
With Daim facing potential freedom from the current case, Mahathir will surely find the way cleared for him to upped his challenge against Najib’s leadership, a leadership which he criticized vehemently for years now.
What will be the end game for Mahathir with Anwar possibly in jail for good?
Mahathir is said to be at war with Umno’s leadership in a bid to push his son at the top post within the party. Without the top post, Mukhriz Mahathir risk being left behind in the next leadership challenge within the Umno and this does not augur good for Tun Mahathir.
The absence of Anwar’s support to the MACC, and Anwar as a potential ally to Najib in the Umno leadership struggle, Mukhriz has a better chance to battle for a top post within the party.
The more so, with the PR on the brink of collapse since the Party Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) will now push for the control of the PR’s leadership and the reaction that will have on the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and the PKR.
The fallout will probably be known sooner than later, after the Permatang Pauh by-election apparently, but definitely before the next PR leadership meeting.