ADB Forecasts 4.9% Growth in Developing Economies in Asia and the Pacific for 2024
ADB Chief Economist Albert Park emphasized the brighter prospects for economies in Asia and the Pacific. As we return to normalization following the pandemic, economic activities are gathering pace.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has released its latest economic outlook, projecting a robust growth trajectory for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific. Despite a slowdown in China, the region is poised for a strong recovery in 2024.
As the world grapples with the aftermath of the pandemic, the ADB’s latest forecast provides a glimpse of optimism. Let’s delve into the key highlights and implications of this growth projection.
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Kazi Mahmood
Growth Forecast:
- Developing economies in Asia and the Pacific are expected to expand by 4.9% on average in 2024.
- This growth outlook reflects a positive trend, building on the momentum from previous years.
China’s Role:
- The People’s Republic of China (PRC) plays a pivotal role in brightening the region’s growth prospects.
- As the PRC pivots away from its zero-COVID strategy, its reopening has a significant impact on the overall economic landscape.
- The PRC economy is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2024, compared to 3.0% in 2022.
South and Southeast Asia:
- Strong growth is expected in South and Southeast Asia, offsetting the slowdown in China.
- Robust domestic demand, improving semiconductor exports, and recovering tourism are driving economic performance in this subregion.
- Southeast Asian economies like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam are projected to grow by 4.7% in 2024.
Risks and Challenges:
- Geopolitical tensions remain a concern, especially in the Middle East, which could disrupt supply chains and reignite inflation.
- Tighter global financial conditions and increased debt levels pose financial stability risks.
- Governments in the region must stay focused on policies that promote trade, investment, productivity, and resilience.
Inflation and Recovery:
- The region’s inflation is expected to moderate gradually toward pre-pandemic levels.
- Improved consumption and investment are driving recovery, despite elevated food and energy prices caused by global headwinds.
Tourism and Remittances:
- Tourism and remittances are trending upward as pandemic restrictions ease further.
- Visitor arrivals in many tourism-dependent economies are steadily improving toward pre-pandemic levels.
ADB Chief Economist Albert Park emphasized the brighter prospects for economies in Asia and the Pacific. As we return to normalization following the pandemic, economic activities are gathering pace. However, challenges persist, and governments must prioritize cooperation, integration, and resilience-building.
In summary, the ADB’s forecast of a 4.9% growth in developing economies for 2024 underscores the region’s resilience and potential. As businesses adapt and innovate, the path to recovery remains promising.