Indian Ocean Strategy: India to dump Port Louis for Mahe?
In its Indian Ocean strategy, India may finally opt to work with the Seychelles rather than with Mauritius.
If this happens, it will be an Indian blow under the belly to Mauritius.
Will New Delhi’s strategic deal with the Seychelles become the cornerstone of its Indian Ocean strategy?
This is the question some in the diplomatic world are asking, and WFTV got wind of it.
The Indian strategy in the IO was largely dependent on Mauritius, Maldives and slightly towards the Seychelles.
But recent Chinese maneouvers in Mauritius and Maldives has changed the Indian perspective.
India is now looking towards the Seychelles, a country it overlooked for years after India Gandhi’s visit in 1981.
Since 2015, it laid down its intent and purpose.
India’s goal is to seek among others, the respect for international maritime rules and norms by all countries.
This would include China, which is part of the Indian rush to secure the maximum control on the Indian Ocean waters.
After what happened in the South China Sea, where China now rules almost singlehandedly, India panicked.
It had to decide on ways and means to get its fair share of the waterways.
But China has already triggered a geo-strategic disaster for India in the Maldives.
And Mauritius is proving to be a hard nut to crack with the current regime in power.
The Mauritius government did everything to woo the Indians to pump money in some vital projects.
But it also has the support of the Chinese in other vital projects.
It is the right of the country to do so.
But when the leaders shun New Delhi’s views and expectations, things can get ugly.
Included in India’s IO strategy is the climate of trust and transparency.
There seems to be less transparency and a lack of trust between both India and Mauritius though.
This apparent disorder has been the case for the past 14 years and has culminated in mistrust.
To begin with, the Indian High Comissioner in Mauritius is bound to fall victim of this situation.
H.E. Mr. Abhay Thakur might just get his stay in the paradise Island shortened.
New Delhi would want a stronger hand in Port Louis to maneouver with the fluidity of the political situation.
India places high interest in nurturing peace and stability as part of its foreign policy cornerstone.
With its lost of Maldives, and the Sri Lankan nation in deep debts towards China, India is losing its grip.
To some extent, it has also lost support in Mauritius.
The current regime does not want to kow-tow to India’s philosophy of transparency in particular.
It is questioning whether its Indian Ocean is still dependent on Mauritius?
There is the constant threat of a declining Hindu population to begin with.
This has brought about a sense of contestation within the Hindu community.
Then there is US70 billion that transited through Mauritius, along with its decision to nurture the Assumption Island.
The Seychelles Island is not far from Agalega where India has played a role.
But opposition to its presence on Agalega from most parties in Mauritiius is forcing it to rethink.
The island in Seychelles is leased to India for the operation of a naval base and air strip by the Indian navy.
It is a significant step to New Delhi’s quest for influence in the Indian Ocean waters.
After leasing Assumption Island, India began preparations for infrastructure development.
They include quarters for the Seychelles Coast Guard and fixing the airstrip on the remote island.
There is very little human activity on the Island.
India and Seychelles have over the years built an elaborate architecture of defence and security cooperation.
With the Assumption, India is looking at the Seychelles Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of over 1.3 million square km.
Bear in mind, the developments in the region are linked to India’s and China’s strategic interests.
India will not leave Mauritius in the lurch.
However, what will happen is that it will beget lesser influence if things goes south.