PAS vs Bersatu Civil War Hands Anwar a Lifeline... But Najib's Jail Term Could Snap It
There is a need to understand the shadows at play — the betrayals are real, the agendas hidden, and Anwar's pragmatism masterful...but a week is always too long in politics
Malaysia's political landscape remains highly fluid and intrigue-filled, with Perikatan Nasional (PN)'s internal fractures deepening while Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's unity government navigates its own vulnerabilities.
Are there some "mysterious hands" behind PN's turmoil? PN's debacle give Anwar a lot of strategic benefits. Then there is the looming UMNO wildcard that can't be ignored with current developments.
But the evidence within PN points more to self-inflicted wounds within PN (driven by power struggles between Bersatu and PAS) rather than direct external orchestration by Anwar or others. The "hidden agendas" are real, but they stem primarily from factional ambitions, legal pressures, and ideological clashes.
The Core Driver of PN's Breakup: Internal Betrayal, Not External Hands
The Perlis political crisis (late December 2025) was the catalyst: Bersatu-backed moves led to the ouster of PAS's Menteri Besar Mohd Shukri Ramli, replaced by Bersatu's Abu Bakar Hamzah. PAS cried "betrayal" and "backstabbing," sacked three of its own assemblymen who withdrew support. This exposed long-simmering tensions — PAS (the larger partner with stronger grassroots) resents Bersatu's dominance despite its minority status.
Muhyiddin Yassin's resignation as PN chairman (effective January 1, 2026) was a tactical retreat, not forced externally. Insiders describe it as a "masterstroke" to avoid escalating the Perlis fallout nationally, shifting blame to PAS while consolidating his grip on Bersatu. PAS quickly offered to lead PN, with President Abdul Hadi Awang positioning the party to take the helm (discussions ongoing for a new chairman, possibly Hadi or a compromise figure).
No clear evidence supports Anwar directly engineering this — he has publicly dismissed PN's infighting as "their problem." The "mysterious hands" appear internal: PAS pushing for supremacy (after Perlis "betrayal"), Bersatu purges targeting pro-Hamzah elements (seen as disloyal to Muhyiddin), and mutual accusations of sabotage.
Bersatu's Internal Purge: Tightening Muhyiddin's Grip Amid Hamzah's Challenge
Recent sackings/suspensions in Bersatu (e.g., top leaders like Saifuddin Abdullah on January 6, 2026, and others aligned with Deputy President Hamzah Zainudin) are explicitly aimed at reducing Hamzah's influence. Analysts view this as Muhyiddin fortifying his position ahead of his March 2026 corruption trial (7 charges involving RM432.5 million in alleged bribes/illegal proceeds from Jana Wabawa projects).
Hamzah — current Leader of the Opposition — is backed by PAS (more "pro-PAS" and seen as a bridge), making him a potential rival for Bersatu leadership or even PN's prime ministerial face. Rumours of a Hamzah-led PN (post-Muhyiddin) persist, but the purge weakens that faction.
The ejected "Hamzah faction" (betrayers in Muhyiddin's eyes) could make a weakened Bersatu more open to realignment, but Muhyiddin's legal woes (and family issues) make him vulnerable — a DNAA/NFA (like Zahid Hamidi's controversial case) could ease tensions but invite backlash over selective justice.
Anwar's Benefits from PN's Downfall — and the Bigger UMNO Headache
PN's chaos creates a leadership vacuum and fragments the Malay-Muslim opposition, reducing immediate threats to Anwar's government (solid majority of ~153 seats). It buys time for Anwar's reform push (e.g., two-term PM limit, separating AG/Public Prosecutor roles) and economic delivery amid cost-of-living pressures.
Anwar worries far more about UMNO volatility than PN disarray. UMNO Youth (led by Akmal Saleh) has pushed for exit from the unity government, fueled by Najib Razak's reinforced 15-year sentence (December 2025) and anger over DAP's perceived gloating. Calls to revive Muafakat Nasional (old UMNO-PAS pact) resurfaced post-Perlis, with PAS open if UMNO leaves Anwar. Some say MN is now dead, but others believe once Umno frees itself from Madani, MN will be revived.
Anwar's response: Containment via cabinet tweaks, assurances of loyalty until GE16 (due by Feb 2028), and brushing aside MN revival talk as "not serious." UMNO President Zahid Hamidi (whose own graft case was dropped) has reaffirmed staying in government. Even if UMNO pulls out (~26-30 seats), Anwar could survive with GPS/GRS/East Malaysian allies (prioritizing MA63 autonomy via targeted funds).
However, yielding to Najib's faction (e.g., pardon pressure) risks alienating DAP/PH reformers. Ignoring them could lead to a slow bleed — or force Anwar toward pragmatic deals (e.g., whispers of Bersatu defectors joining, though unlikely with Muhyiddin's trial looming).
The Improbability of Anwar-PAS/Bersatu Realignment — and DAP's Red Line
A PH-PN mega-alliance (PAS leading PN) is "virtually impossible" in this cycle due to ideological rifts: DAP's secular, reformist base would revolt against PAS's conservatism (extremist image alienates non-Malays). Admitting Bersatu (even weakened) could dilute PH's agenda and frustrate DAP, mirroring how UMNO's inclusion has already forced compromises.
Rumours of Bersatu joining Anwar persist, but depend on Muhyiddin's case outcome — a softer resolution risks Zahid-style backlash. PAS under its own leadership might moderate for broader appeal (e.g., via Hamzah), but it would still struggle to win GE16 without fracturing Malay votes further.
Bottom Line: A Win for Anwar's Inertia, But Fragile
PN's breakup benefits Anwar by neutralizing the opposition threat short-term, allowing focus on delivery and reforms. The real danger is UMNO unrest — if it escalates, Anwar may concede on Najib-related issues to hold the tent together, or risk a realignment that exposes his coalition's compromises. 2026 is a "test year" of survival, not dominance.
There is a need to understanding these shadows — the betrayals are real, the agendas hidden, and Anwar's pragmatism masterful. The pieces are moving, but no single "mysterious hand" pulls all strings; it's a web of self-interest tearing PN apart while Anwar watches, and waits.
Kazi Mahmood