UMNO's Last Stand: Reviving Ghosts or Facing Reality Before Oblivion?
UMNO faces existential crisis as Youth chief pushes Muafakat Nasional revival with PAS, ignoring urgent need for internal reform and fresh leadership to avert electoral defeat
As Malaysia hurtles toward the 16th General Election (GE16), the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) finds itself at a precarious crossroads, grappling with a legacy of electoral humiliation and internal discord.
The party's Youth chief, Dr Muhamad Akmal Saleh, has ignited fresh controversy by urging UMNO to abandon the Anwar Ibrahim-led Unity Government and resurrect the Muafakat Nasional (MN) pact with Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), framing it as a desperate bid to reclaim Malay unity.
This call, voiced during a special Youth convention on January 3, 2026, reflects not strategic foresight but a panicked scramble amid mounting evidence of UMNO's erosion as a political force. Yet, as reactions pour in—from PAS's enthusiastic welcome to confusion within UMNO's own ranks—it underscores a deeper malaise: a party unwilling to confront the "red lines" that could seal its fate in irrelevance.
Red Lines - Reviving Ghosts
UMNO's downward spiral is no mere blip. In GE15, the party scraped together just 26 parliamentary seats, its nadir since Malaysia's independence in 1957, as Malay voters—once its bedrock—defected en masse. The verdict was unambiguous: credibility shattered by leadership scandals, particularly those tied to former prime minister Najib Razak's 1MDB convictions.
Fast-forward to the November 2025 Sabah state election, where UMNO's fortunes plummeted further. Contesting under Barisan Nasional (BN), the party secured a paltry six seats, halving its 2020 tally of 14 in a hung assembly dominated by local coalitions like Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) with 29 seats and Warisan with 25.
Even key figures like the late Bung Moktar Radin clung to victory by razor-thin margins, signaling a broader rejection of peninsula-based parties in Borneo. These losses aren't anomalies; they're the culmination of a gradual abandonment since 2018, exacerbated by perceived arrogance and failure to deliver on promises of progress for Malays.
MN Revival?
Akmal's push for MN revival—echoing PAS leaders' overtures—smacks of nostalgia over necessity. Forged in 2019, the original pact crumbled amid mutual distrust, with UMNO feeling "cheated" by PAS in past alliances. Reviving it now, amid Perikatan Nasional (PN) infighting like the Perlis menteri besar crisis, might temporarily consolidate Malay votes but risks alienating non-Malay supporters UMNO once courted. It also risk alienating liberal Malay voters who swung to Perikatan Nasional in the state elections in 2023.
Critics within UMNO, including grassroots leaders and Wanita wing members, warn that exiting the Unity Government would weaken the party further, questioning guarantees from PAS and decrying the move as emotionally driven rather than pragmatic. Even UMNO's Supreme Council has distanced itself, labeling it a Youth wing opinion requiring formal deliberation.
The harsh truth is UMNO's prospects look bleak regardless of path chosen. Staying in the Madani coalition offers stability but dilutes its identity, as seen in Sabah where the PH-BN pact yielded minimal gains. Joining PN via MN could unify opposition Malays but invites ideological clashes—PAS's conservative Islamism versus UMNO's secular nationalism—and might fracture BN allies like MCA.
Umno going solo?
Going solo as BN? A recipe for disaster, with predictions of further seat losses in states like Perak and Pahang. Analysts foresee UMNO's "identity crisis" leading to electoral irrelevance in GE16, potentially ceding ground to PN if vote-splitting persists. Upcoming state polls in Melaka and Johor by late 2026 will serve as litmus tests, but without reform, even "safe" seats may slip away.
To maneuver this quagmire, UMNO must cross its self-imposed red lines: jettison the pro-Najib faction that clings to "amanah" rhetoric while embodying an abandonment of the struggle through corruption scandals burdening generations with billions in debt.
Fresh leadership via the March 2026 party elections is essential—transparent, merit-based polls to inject new ideas and restore trust, not recycled figures mired in controversy. Uphold core values like responsibility and development for Malays, ditching divisive racial posturing for inclusive policies that win back urban and youth voters. Negotiations ahead—whether with PAS, PH, or internally—demand maturity, not Akmal's fiery appeals that risk alienating allies like DAP.
UMNO's survival hinges on reinvention, not revival of failed pacts. Ignore these red lines, and GE16 could mark the party's final eclipse, consigning it to history as a cautionary tale of hubris. The Malay electorate has spoken repeatedly; it's time UMNO listens—or fades.
Kazi Mahmood