MSM slips, Labour, MMM, Malin surge: But who is winning?

Various reports are out on who is winning the elections, some saying they have won 45 seats or more. But the jury is still out there!

Six days to voting day and we can see good crowds at rallies, with some unexpected surprises.

The PTR showing off its claws in Port Louis, but Parti Malin outshines the PTR at Plaine Verte in crowds? That is a massive surprise.

The MMM is on a great run. It pulls big crowds at rallies while its T-shirts are out of stock on the market.

While the MMM is the party with the least money to spend, it has surprised many with its crowd-pulling prowess.

The MSM-ML is in disarray. No surprise there. Its margin is shrinking in the face of various fresh allegations called the ‘gates’. Mama-piti is one of the latest to hit the MSM frontally.

The MSM response to the accusations is lacklustre, except for the hard-hitting ‘Navingates’ that has caught the PTR off-guard.

PARTI MALIN?

There are no doubts elections in Mauritius can be a very colourful exercise. And the Parti Malin of outspoken Danrajsingh Aubeeluck is one of them.

He surely got the shock of his life with a massive reception in the most unexpected of constituencies. It is the Port Louis Maritime and Port Louis East or the famous No3.

The Muslim majority vote bank once the fixed-deposit of the MMM is a split narrative nowadays. The constituents are struggling to get a political identity.

MMM leader Paul Berenger says there will be surprises in these elections. Is the Parti Malin going to upset some big shots?

RURAL BATTLE: MSM-PTR CHECK MATE?

One thing many political observers are not considering is the make-up of the constituencies in the rural areas.

Our source says in many rural seats, there is a closer breakdown of the communal composition than thought.

There is the representation of minority communities in rural areas. In the long-gone past, most of these areas were massively Hindu majority.

But a shift took place in the last decade with a percentage of the people embracing the Christian faith.

This will impact the votes. The MMM is the only party to dare to put non-Hindu candidates in traditionally Hindu-majority seats.

It is doing so again in Triolet, or the No 5 constituency.

While the candidate may not win, it illustrates how the constituency has changed. And the change is very significant.

Our source says there is an average 30-35% of Christian voters in some rural constituencies. This will impact the voter count.

The MSM-ML and the PTR are fighting for Hindu votes. The MMM is targeting the minorities and the new configuration risk favouring it.

Indeed, the MMM does have Hindu support in rural areas. And this too will add to the woes of the MSM and PTR.