Philippines: Solving the SCS Dispute the US or the China Way?

However, it appears that no Asean leaders spoke of the need to engage with China using the grouping as the base nor a thorough discussion on Asean centrality

China and Asean
Photo by Li Yang / Unsplash

With the ongoing Philippines versus China struggles in the South China Sea, one solution is for the ASEAN to take charge of negotiations with Beijing.

This is what Premier Li Qiang underscored when he said China places a high priority on its relations with ASEAN as part of the country's neighbourhood diplomacy during the last Asean meetup.

At that time, Li conveyed China’s unwavering support to ASEAN centrality and for ASEAN to play an even bigger role in the evolving regional architecture. The pity is that most ASEAN nations are not keen to see a strengthening of the ASEAN centrality, but China deems that this is a very important aspect of the current geopolitical dispute.

The Philippines is planning to increase its involvement in multilateral activities, including conducting freedom of navigation patrols in the South China Sea, according to its defence minister. This move comes after a recent dispute between the Philippines and China, during which both sides accused each other of escalating tensions.

Manila showing teeth

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Manila alleged that China's coast guard intentionally collided with its vessels during a resupply mission to a small troop contingent stationed on a rusted ship grounded two decades ago.

The incident occurred near a disputed reef within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, and it has garnered significant international criticism of Beijing's actions, despite China's claims of sovereignty over a vast portion of the South China Sea, a claim that was previously ruled to have no legal basis by an international arbitration tribunal.

Nevertheless, the importance of multilateralism was also in Premier Li mind when he said China would work closely with ASEAN to bring the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership negotiations to a swift conclusion this year. The Asean should consider this as a path to a solution in the SCS.

Meanwhile, the Asean leaders also said that relevant parties should join hands to cope with such global challenges as climate change, energy and food security, so as to inject new impetus into regional stability and prosperity and make East Asia a centre of peace and growth. However, it appears that no Asean leaders spoke of the need to engage with China using the grouping as the base.

Peace between China and the Philippines?

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Peace between China and the Philippines may need more than an assertion of power by Manila.

It will also depend on who the asean countries choose to do business with in the future. Like I said before it looks likely that Asean may turn to China more. Whether the Asean turns to the US and the West or turns to China, it is China that will gain in the end.

This is true despite China's own problems at home that need resolutions while asean countries made it clear they do not want a sharpening of knives between superpowers in the region. Again, with this response by the Asean as a grouping with regards to the SCS, it is a clear sign that the USA-Western Nations are not going to benefit from a united Asean voice. Once more, I have to insist, that whichever way the Asean moves, China is to gain.

Now many think China also has to decide on its strategy in the region and in regard to the South China Sea which is very important to Asean. The mistake that we make is this: China has already decided firmly on its long-term policies in the SCS.