Democrats Gain Ground as Republicans Face Tough Midterm Fight in America
Trump's personal standing is a particular problem. Reuters reported Monday that his approval rating had fallen to 33%, prompting concern among some Republicans
WASHINGTON: The balance of power in Washington is beginning to look increasingly vulnerable for Republicans as Democrats build momentum ahead of the November 3 midterm elections.
The latest polling suggests that the Democrats currently have the advantage on the national congressional vote. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin tracker puts the Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot at around 6.7 percentage points, rising to 8.1 points after its likely-voter adjustment. A Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this month put Democrats ahead 42% to 37% among registered voters.
The trend is significant because Republicans enter the election controlling both chambers of Congress. Midterms traditionally punish the party occupying the White House, and President Donald Trump is now facing a combination of economic dissatisfaction, political fatigue and growing Democratic mobilisation.
Republicans and Trump
Trump's personal standing is a particular problem. Reuters reported Monday that his approval rating had fallen to 33%, prompting concern among some Republicans that putting him at the centre of their campaign could hurt candidates in competitive districts and states.
The Senate, once considered relatively safe territory for Republicans, is also becoming more competitive. Democrats are now seriously contesting Republican-held seats in Iowa and Texas, while Alaska, Kansas, Mississippi and Nebraska have also entered the wider battlefield. Cook Political Report has moved both Texas and Iowa into the toss-up category, while its assessment of the Senate overall has shifted from a Republican advantage to a toss-up.
The House may prove even more difficult for Republicans if the national Democratic advantage survives until November. The party is benefiting from voter dissatisfaction with the economy and from Democratic enthusiasm, which Republican strategists acknowledge is currently stronger.
Yet it would be premature to declare a Democratic victory.
American Politics
Three months is a long time in American politics. Republicans retain the advantages of incumbency, strong fundraising networks and a highly motivated conservative base. Trump also remains extraordinarily influential among Republican voters.
The Republican strategy is increasingly to make the election a referendum on Democrats, particularly the party's progressive wing. Its September convention in Dallas will seek to reinforce Trump's tax-cutting and immigration agenda while portraying Democrats as dominated by socialism.
For now, however, the direction of travel is clear: Democrats are no longer simply hoping to limit Republican losses. They are beginning to see a realistic path to taking Congress.
The key question is whether they can maintain that momentum when voters actually go to the polls.
Johan Chairil