The Race for the Next UN Chief — and No One Has Yet Emerged as the Clear Winner
Eight candidates are currently in contention, with the latest Security Council straw poll producing a surprise shift in the field. Guyana's ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett moved into first place, receiving eight "encourage" votes in the second informal poll on August 21.
UNITED NATIONS: The United Nations has entered a crucial phase in the search for a successor to Secretary-General António Guterres, whose second term ends on December 31.
The race has already become unusually competitive.
Eight candidates are currently in contention, with the latest Security Council straw poll producing a surprise shift in the field. Guyana's ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett moved into first place, receiving eight "encourage" votes in the second informal poll on August 21. Costa Rica's Rebeca Grynspan, who led the first poll, slipped to seven. Argentina's Rafael Grossi also received seven encourage votes but attracted six "discourage" votes.
The results underline how open the contest remains.
Rodrigues-Birkett's rise is particularly significant because the UN has traditionally operated around an informal expectation of regional rotation. Latin America and the Caribbean are widely seen as having a strong claim to the post this time, while there is also growing pressure for the organisation to appoint its first woman secretary-general.
Other candidates include former Chilean president Michelle Bachelet, former Ecuadorian foreign minister María Fernanda Espinosa, former Senegalese president Macky Sall, Ugandan diplomat Olara Otunnu, Grossi, Grynspan and Ivonne A-Baki of Ecuador. The UN's official selection process lists the candidates and their nominations.
None has yet secured the support needed to become the clear choice of the Security Council.
That is important because the secretary-general is not selected by a straightforward global vote. The Security Council must recommend a candidate to the 193-member General Assembly, which then formally appoints the secretary-general.
The five permanent members — the United States, China, Russia, Britain and France — therefore have enormous influence because any one of them can effectively block a candidate.
The second straw poll showed just how complicated that bargaining could become. Bachelet's support fell sharply, while Grossi's opposition increased. Rodrigues-Birkett gained ground, but still did not reach the nine votes required for a substantive Security Council decision.
The choice comes at a difficult moment for the UN.
Guterres leaves office after nearly a decade marked by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, worsening geopolitical rivalry and growing questions about the UN's ability to enforce international law and resolve conflicts.
The next secretary-general will therefore inherit an organisation under pressure to become more effective while simultaneously facing a Security Council divided by the world's major powers.
The selection process is already underway, with candidate dialogues and consultations continuing through the year.
For now, Rodrigues-Birkett may have the momentum.
But the decisive contest will take place behind closed doors, where regional expectations, gender, geopolitics and — above all — the preferences of the five permanent powers will determine who eventually succeeds Guterres.
Kazi Mahmood